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Source: Network
After five years of preparation, pulp futures were finally listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on November 27, 2018. The main sp1906 contract listing price of 5980 / ton, because the listing price is determined earlier, the spot market price fell, coupled with more local stocks, the pressure on the price, the pulp futures contract fell sharply after listing. After a few days of decline, the Sp1906 contract stabilized above 5000 and then showed a range of volatility.
In 2008, the world's pulp production and sales reached a high of 192 million tons. After the financial crisis in 2008, the global pulp production and sales decreased sharply. In 2009, the world's pulp production was only 178 million tons. After a continuous small decline in 2010-2015, global pulp production and consumption in 2016 was 181 million tons, and global pulp basically maintained a balance between supply and demand.
From the perspective of domestic pulp production, the total pulp output in 2016 was 16.12 million tons. The total output in 2017 reached 16.33 million tons. From 2018 to August, the cumulative output was 9.98 million tons, significantly less than the 11.907 million tons in the same period last year. The total output of mechanical paper and paperboard in 2016 was 12,319,000 tons, and the output in 2017 was 125.42 million tons. As of November 2018, the cumulative output was 107.48 million tons.
China's pulp imports totaled 21.06 million tons in 2016. In 2017, the import volume was 23.72 million tons. In 2018, as of November, a total of 230.29 million tons was imported. The average unit price of imports in November was 790.12 US dollars/ton. Due to the promotion of ecological civilization construction, China has introduced a policy of ban on the import of solid waste. The import of waste paper has been greatly restricted. The import of waste paper has been greatly reduced in 2018. As of October 2018, the cumulative import of waste paper was only 12.83 million tons, less than 2017. Imports in the first half of the year.
International pulp prices rose sharply in 2017, from a minimum of 590 US dollars / ton at the beginning of the year to a maximum of 910 US dollars / ton. Prices remained at a high level in the first half of 2018 and were loosened in the third quarter. As of mid-December, Canada's horse card fell the most, down to 740 US dollars / ton, Chile's silver star at 760 US dollars / ton, Canada's Northwood price is the strongest, maintained at 860 US dollars / ton. Domestic pulp prices followed international prices, rising from a minimum of 4,000/ton to a maximum of 7,200/ton. In the first half of 2018, there was a correction. In November, the price dropped significantly. As of mid-December, the price was between 5500-5736/ton. The point has dropped by 30%.
In the future, due to the implementation of environmental protection policies, supply-side reforms, and bans, the supply-side variables are relatively large, while the demand side is relatively stable. It is expected that the value center of pulp will gradually move upward in the long run, but in the short to medium term. Under the pressure of inventory and other aspects, there will be a longer period of shock adjustment.
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